Have you seen the orange “On Demand” in the upper right of the TOS platform? I noticed it around the 1st of the year. I pressed it a few times but didn’t understand what was going on – I thought it was movies like I have to pay for with my cable. Then I watched the January 6th Trader Lounge (under “Support/Chat” then the “Seminars” tab). Holy Cow! What a cool feature!
On Demand allows you to “re-wind” and “play back” entire trading days (only normal market hours right now) tic-for-tic. I think it goes back 5 trading days. Want to do a what-if on a trade from Tuesday? Just select that date and hit the “Play” button and watch the clock start to tick and the prices change and update just like it was Tuesday! Pause it, rewind, fast forward or start over. This is all done in a separate “On Demand” trading account that has no effect on your live account. I can see a lot of uses for this tool, but I haven’t had time to play with it. Talk about an awesome tool for practicing day trading, wow!
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)
This company has been on my watch list almost forever. It’s fun to trade this company and it acts a bit differently than many of the other retailers. Recently it went on my On Deck list as a potential Bear Play, especially when I saw the price hit the bottom ½ of my long-term channel and start to make lower highs and lower lows. Then it broke through support of the channel and really caught my attention.
Notice also this Revenue Chart from ycharts.com. I scratched my head wondering how a stock can rise so far (this year) on negative earnings? Most of you know that one of the few fundamentals that I look at is revenue to help me determine the health of a company or explain the current price direction. Granted, their negative revenue growth was ‘less negative’ last quarter – the street must have like that since the stock gapped up – but reality finally sank in and the price has pulled back.
Going through my analysis, I was able to identify some bear flags as marked on the chart. Now some of you may argue over whether all of them are flags, and one may be a stretch, but none-the-less the stock is in a defined downtrend. I played around with a few different potential trades and ended up with what I think is the safest: a FEB Bear Call at -34/+36.
Notice also that they have earnings on 2/16 and we (I) never want to hold a trade like this through earnings. I looked at 2/15 at the current price using the TOS Analyze tool, and found out theta would reward me with my max gain minus about $20 on that date and at the current price. As a matter of fact, any price lower than 33.25 would give me a profit. That would be good enough for me since I plan to exit this trade before the earnings date.
Check out my In Play (tab) for all my current open positions. One other item I would like to draw your attention to: each day we gain 1 or 2 minutes of additional sunshine – well, let’s call it day light since it’s cloudy most of the time.
- Jeff
