CallWriter SuperPut Strategy Explained
Using the SuperPut StrategyCopyright 2007-2009 John Brasher. Used by permission. |
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CallWriter’s family of SuperPut lists presents something new in covered call lists: covered call trade candidates with a long-dated protective put added to protect the stock’s downside. The covered call trade is built like this: Covered Call = Long Stock – Short CallWhat is a SuperPut?Because the covered call involves a long stock position, the danger posed to the writer is a sell-off in the stock. The best protective measure to define and limit risk in a covered call trade is to buy a long-term protective put when the trade is placed (known as a married put when the put is bought at inception), which I refer to as a SuperPut trade. The SuperPut position looks like this: SuperPut = Long Stock – Short Call + Long PutRecall that a put option gives the holder (in this case, you – the call writer) the right but not the obligation, to sell the stock at a fixed price for a specified period of time. Thus even if the stock price collapses, the call writer who has purchased a protective put will be able, for the life of the put, to sell the stock at the put’s strike price. In the CallWriter SuperPut trade, the long puts shown on the list will have an expiration that is six to eight months out. Why do I call it the SuperPut? Because the trade involves a long put that does a super job of protecting the underlying stock. These trades really are SuperPuts. We also refer to them as Protected Buy-Write (PBW) trades. The Top 10 Reasons to Write SuperPutsSuperPut trades are constructed to provide cheap protection for your stock over the intermediate term, while allowing you to write calls every month to bring in a stream of premium over time. Additional profits can be realized by trading the calls. The advantages of the SuperPut trade – when the long-term put’s cost is cheap in comparison to the current-month call’s premium – are numerous:
Now it is time to see what the excitement is all about! We will select a sample trade that in early September 2007, as this is written, offers good prospects as a SuperPut position. A Sample SuperPut TradeOur goal in the following illustrative Lehman Bros. Holdings (LEH) SuperPut trade is to generate a good income stream from the sequential writing of calls and to lower the put cost per month. LEH has been volatile, as have all the big brokers in the summer of 2007. This volatility is likely to continue, due to concerns that the brokers will suffer major asset write-downs and hits to income as the housing market dries up sales of financial products, among other woes. The continuing volatility means that 1) premium is likely to stay high, and 2) movement in the stock will provide opportunities to trade the calls for additional profit. This trade appeared on CallWriter’s SuperPut lists. While we cannot know what the stream of call premium will be, we have fixed the cost of put protection going in. Using actual LEH option prices, we can construct a potential SuperPut trade of eight months’ maximum duration and examine it closely for income potential. The projections of $2.00 per month in call premium are just that – projections – but the table below assumes a conservative level of call premium for succeeding months. There is good reason to think that high premium levels will continue in brokers such as LEH for some time, until the problems besetting them resolve. Putting on the TradeIn the following SuperPut trade example, we assume a buy of LEH at $54.83, writing the current at-the-money SEP 55 Call for $3.20 in premium (all time value), and for protection buying the APR 55 Put for $6.70. The APR 55 Put guarantees that we can never sell the stock for less than $55, no matter what happens! And the put is a bargain, because we get eight expiration months of protection at $55 and it only costs us $6.70, or $0.83 per month. The trade costs us $58.33 per share to put on (54.83 – 3.20 + 6.70), or $29,165 if we bought 500 shares.
We could have written the OTM SEP 60 Calls for a $1.30 premium instead of the ATM 55 Calls for $3.20. Doing so would have produced far less premium income, though it would have produced nice profits if the stock were called. Maximum RiskNote in the above LEH trade how, in the third month of the trade, the position becomes risk-less and goes into profit. The long put limits our risk, because for the eight-month life of the put, we can sell the LEH stock at $55. But notice that the risk soon goes to zero. At the time of trade entry our maximum risk – the largest amount we can lose even if the stock goes to zero – is $3.33, or $1,665.00. The second month’s call write for an assumed $2.00 lowers the maximum possible loss to $1.33, or $665 on 500 shares. The third call write at $2.00 makes the trade risk-less and puts it into guaranteed profit. When the third call is written, the trade no longer can lose. In fact, if premium levels continue as high as they are, the second month’s call write could make the trade risk-less, or within pennies of being risk-less. SuperPut Income StreamThis trade pulls in a total call premium income stream of $17.20 ($8,600), and after recouping the $6.70 put cost, the net premium income stream for the eight months is $10.50 ($5,250.00). That is a clear profit of 18% for eight months; a 27% annualized return. And 5.7% was the maximum possible loss on trade entry. An average premium level of $2.50 per month instead of $2.00 would have added an extra $3.50 of total premium income, boosting return from $10.50 to $14.00 ($7,000.00), for a 24% raw return, 36% annualized. A simple covered call with no put added would have produced far greater returns, since there would not be the financial drag of the long put, but also would have exposed the writer to a far higher level of risk. NOTE: The LEH table does not include any profits from assumed trading the calls or upon assignment. With a volatile stock the returns could be far greater than assumed in the LEH table above. However, it is important to see how the trade works in conception. Profits CompoundingAs the premium stream rolls in every month, it can be put into other trades. The LEH table above makes no attempt to show the result from compounding premium income by placing it into new SuperPut trades. Bankers refer to it as “turning” capital. As payments come in on loans, bankers lend the money out again right away, turning it into new loans for more returns. Compounding is important, because it keeps your money working with maximum efficiency. The great banking fortunes of history were built precisely on turning their money. SuperPut Trade SelectionObviously, we cannot know what the price of LEH or any other stock might be over the coming months, or what the level of implied volatility (IV) and therefore call premiums might be. Just as obviously, we will not make a flat, linear return on the calls as shown in the table above. Therefore, we cannot predict premium except by dead reckoning, which makes assumptions about future levels of implied volatility in the stock. This is why a stock with a high background level of implied volatility, such as LEH or General Motors (GM), make the best SuperPut candidates when the put cost is cheap: because the volatility expectations keep premium high month after month. A stock that consistently hits the CallWriter lists month in and month out are ones with higher-than-normal levels of implied volatility – and thus option premium. On the other hand, a stock like Olin Corp. (OLN), which historically is not very volatile, might offer high call premium in a particular month as well as cheap long-term put costs. Call premium in succeeding months is unlikely to be good, however, because the persistent volatility expectations will not be there. If Olin should go into a volatile phase because of events affecting it or its industry, that could change. But staid, non-volatile stocks are not great choices for SuperPut trades, because despite cheap put costs they do not produce good call premium. The SuperPut (and covered call) writer essentially is milking the stock for call premium. And just as the dairy farmer prefers, for the same cost, a cow that gives lots of milk to one that gives little milk, we should look for stocks more likely to produce call premium. The two primary factors that make money for a SuperPut writer are:
Basic SuperPut ManagementUnlike the situation with an unprotected covered call, we are not normally concerned about a price slide in the SuperPut. Therefore, trade management becomes less about saving the writer’s bacon and more about pulling additional profit out of the position through trading. Here are some common scenarios and basic responses:
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